Posts by Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“Would you seriously state that the Watchtowers Blood Transfusion Policy has resulted in a number of fatalities amongst Jehovah's Witnesses equal to or greater than 50,000?”

Nicolaou,

Based on my personal experience I could easily agree with that figure as a minimum over the 50 previous years.

Based on the statistical deaths in Beliaev’s study I can extrapolate that number at least, and more if I attempted to adjust for any additional like deaths at other facilities equal to those whose patient data he used.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“Marvin, all you can truly say from your data is that "at least" 19 people have died from refusing blood.”

Simon,

If I can “truly” say from the given data set that at least 19 people have died from refusing blood then I can “truly” say what that would mean applied broadly based on given assumptions.

Apparently you don’t get this. But it’s what I’ve done.

I’ve not predicted a number. I’ve extrapolated a number based on something that is ‘true’ and stated assumptions.

“Are there 49,981 more? I'm not so sure. You have not presented any compelling evidence that there are that many, just a lot of hand waving and telling anyone who questions things that they are not as intelligent as you are, are too dumb to understand (basic math) or that their questions aren't valid or worth answering.”

A lot of hand waving? Telling folks they are not as intelligent as me?

Giving specific information is not hand waving.

Answering questions crucial to my extrapolation is not hand waving.

In case you missed the memo, I do not consider myself more intelligent than other participants here. So what?

That’s not the discussion. The discussion is whether my extrapolation presents an inflated value, and if you think it does then SHOW WHY and be done with it. This latter part is what you keep failing to do. Put some skin on your complaints in the way of specific assertions so we have something to discuss. Until then you’ve said nothing.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“To me it means that you are blinded by your own belief in your method and are unwilling to even consider the chance that it could be wrong or you could have missed something.”

Simon,

To the contrary, I want to know if I’ve missed or overstated something. When are you going to show me something to this effect?

“You keep repeating the 19 deaths out of 103. Yes, 19 over a decade in practically 2/3rd of a whole country is a pretty small rate of incidence which means that while it could well be representative it could equally a cluster of cases or even a dip, whatever - I haven't seen anything presented that indicates whether this has been considered or not and certainly nothing that consititutes evidence that it isn't.”

Read the study.

“All the time you are convinced that "there must be more in the other hospitals". Well, OK ... what if there were 1 or 2 more? Yes, your total goes up but now the 19 looks like a bit of an anomaly. Would that make you more or less confident in the extrapolation? Would the result look more or less conservative?”

I’m using the information before me. I’m not assuming anything of the numbers other than what’s presented. There are 19 deaths over and beyond the norm due to refusing blood.

I’m not going to ignore that.

Oh, and there were more than 19 deaths.

In the JW grouping there were 21 deaths out of 103 patients.

In the non-JW grouping there were 2 deaths out of 103 matched patients.

“This is the danger ot taking a small sample and extrapolating the result and applying it to a large population and then being too dogmatic about the whole thing.”

21 of 103 compared to 2 of 103 is not small. It’s huge.

“I don't have confidence in your method or assumptions but it's obviously a waste of time trying to explain why as you simply refuse to accept anything that disagrees with your view.”

You don’t know the math, the means or even the subject! So what?

Share a specific disagreement rather than the ambiguity you keep repeating. Then you’ve said something we can talk about. Until then you’ve said nothing.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“But Marvin, I'm struggling to understand whether your extrapolation is reliable or not, even whether the nature of an extrapolation is something that is relevant in this case.”

Nicolaou,

My extrapolation is invalid only if it’s an overstatement. My extrapolation is presented as: Since 1961 we can conservatively estimate that at least 50,000 of Jehovah's Witnesses have died due to Watchtower's blood doctrine. What does “at least” mean to you?

“Who are we trying to reach here?”

My work is not part of a “we” who are trying to reach anyone.

My work is my own, and I’m trying to reach a broad spectrum of readers, whoever they may be. One of the most frequently asked questions has to do with the extent of mortality this doctrine has caused.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“Marvin, you say the patients were matched, but how closely? 103 patients is a very small sample. The paper that critiqued the study did mention they were comparing apples and oranges, as far as ages, and other criteria. it makes me wonder if it really is a valid comparison. I guess that is enough for the purposes of the study to say that, yes, taking blood results in less mortality, but is it enough to extrapolate from a sample with any degree of accuracy?There has to be a level of error in that study, and that level of error could result a huge difference, even if you are conservative on other areas.”

LisaRose,

The article “Comparing Apples with Oranges” by Isbister is based on a false premise that deviations such as age were not responsibly corrected for. Don’t ask me how Isbister overlooked this. But he did. You can see the corrections made in the tables, and it’s even pointed out in a footnote for those who didn’t take time to analyze the tables.

If we assume an extreme error (say, 50%) it would not begin to offset all the conservative inputs I assumed for sake of my extrapolation. I used an input value of 19 deaths. There are way more than just the 19 deaths due to refusing red cell transfusion. On top of this are additional deaths due to refusing platelets transfusion. On top of this are yet more deaths to add to the input due to refusing plasma exchange transfusion. Then we have the previous years’ greater dependency on blood transfusion prior to alternative techniques, methods and medicines we have today. This previous increased dependency on blood transfusion would add yet again to the input value.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“Given that you admit that the changes would have an impact on thedeath rate, isn't it a little disingenuous to suggest that the figure produced by a formula that ignores these changes is accurate and conservative?”

Simon,

Of course the figure produced by my extrapolation is not disingenuous because my extrapolation is as stated: Since 1961 we can conservatively estimate that at least 50,000 of Jehovah's Witnesses have died due to Watchtower's blood doctrine. What does "at least" mean to you, Simon?

Whether my extrapolation is conservative in order to establish a minimum value is for critics to examine. So far I’ve been offered no evidence showing my value is anything other than minimal.

“Again, you are so convinced that you are 'conservative' that you are not even willing to even consider any ways that you may not be. The 19 dead in the study could be a large cluster for all you know and not indicative of results elsewhere or even there for the following or preceeding time periods.”

The 19 deaths are still 19 deaths. Right? Guess what? The 19 deaths is not an understatement because we know they occurred, and that is the baseline input used in my extrapolation.

Mortality resulting from refusal of red cell transfusion in years previous to 1998 would only inflate the value of my extrapolation because in previous years patients were more dependant on red cell transfusion than today.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“Marvin: You keep with the assumption that things could only ever increase your value and seem blind to anything that could possibly decrease it.”

Simon,

Then name something that would tend to inflate my value that I have engaged in.

“When extrapolating very small numbers to very large ones the slightest change can have a dramatic effect on the final figure.

“It's for this reason that I think your conclusions, while well intentioned, are possibly incorrect and misleading.”

Let’s talk about how small numbers and their influence.

My input number of 19 deaths comes from 4 hospitals with trauma services out of 14 hospitals with trauma services in the same region. Do you think there were ANY additional like deaths at any of the other 10 hospitals with trauma services? How about the scores of other hospitals in the same region that don’t offer trauma services but do have emergency rooms and treat bleeding patients? Do you really think my input value of 19 is POSSIBLY inflated based on this?

If so, please tell me how. I’d really love to know.

My input number of 19 deaths DOES NOT include any deaths resulting from JW refusing a blood product other than red cells. Do you know how many other blood products prevent premature death everyday of the week by their administration by transfusion? Were I to account for any of these additional deaths it would only increase my input value of 19. Right? So, do you really think my input value of 19 is POSSIBLY inflated based on this?

If so, please tell me how. I’d really love to know.

Oh, and I could keep going with a pretty long list. Need I?

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“I am just asking the questions at this point. I understand the study excluded patients in palliative care. But they could have had cancer that was still being treated, no?”

LisaRose,

Yes. There were many comorbidities other than severe anemia. But, again, this was a matched comparison study so these comorbidities existed in each group; hence the differential in mortality was solely due to lack of red cell transfusion. When it comes to cancer, the study shows the non-JW group included nearly twice as many with this comorbidity/history. Despite this the non-JW group had a mortality rate that was in the basement compared to the JW group.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“This is why anything that's based on a simple calculation is fundamentally flawed.”

That’s false.

A calculation’s level of complexity (less or more) is no indicator of correctness.

“A true model is needed taking into account the different factors of both WatchTower doctrine AND medical treatments available as well as the number of JWs around and the likelihood that they would refuse blood treatment and die as a result of it as each period of time (whether per year or per decade).”

That’s false.

We do not need to account for all different factors if we want to extrapolate based on conservative inputs. My calculation was done intentionally with the use of conservative inputs at every turn in order to establish what amounts to a minimum value. So 1) when it comes to Watchtower doctrine the conservative approach is to use statistics influenced by changes that were formally issued in year 2000. The data collection of Beliaev has this statistical influence because most of the data was accrued from year 2000 onward. And 2) when it comes to medical treatments available the conservative approach is to use statistics based on current medical technology rather than outdated medical technology. The Beliaev study fits this bill, too.

“Simple logic: if the period the study covered was the worst period for JWs dying then you can't apply the results to ALL periods. Does anyone truly believe that the risk has been constant and that changes in doctrine and treatment have no effect?”

In answer, no. More importantly, my extrapolated value opts for inputs that are least likely to inflate the outcome and most likely to deflate the outcome. This is a strength of the approach I took to answering the question of how many JWs have died due to Watchtower’s blood doctrine. My extrapolation is conservative.

Marvin Shilmer

739

250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou in

80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.

250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.

stop this #cult!

Marvin Shilmer

-

“The things I mentioned can't possibly be included in Marvin's calculation.”

TD,

Exactly, and they are not.

Marvin Shilmer